This article is part of the职业发展年代eries:Engineering Your Career
This article appeared inMachine Design并已在此处出版。
工程需要使用机器，系统，材料和流程来解决社会的现实世界问题。有许多不同的工程学科和不同的专业知识，但都涉及解决人们的问题，因此它们本质上影响了社会。
This means licensed professional engineers are ethically obliged to hold paramount the health, safety, and welfare of the public. Although our country and the world looked different in 1946 when the国家专业工程师学会（NSPE）endorsed its first code of ethics, engineers’ obligation to the public has become more important than ever as the infrastructure and technology around us become ever more complex.
As the world rapidly changes, the problem-solving skills that are foundational to engineering are needed now more than ever. Here are just a few trends that may alter our profession.
Population Growth and Urbanization
According to census data, the U.S. population is projected to grow from 326 million to 400 million between 2020 and 2051. Plus, over the last several decades, there has been a consistent shift of population from rural to urban areas. Although the COVID-19 pandemic may have forced people to work from home and seek out more rural settings, which slowed migration into the cities, urbanization is likely to continue. In fact, 2020 data shows about 57 million people living in rural U.S. and 273 million people in urban areas.
And cities are growing in size, as well. It’s predicted the total amount of urban land will climb from 3.1% of all the land in the U.S. in 2000 to 8.1% in 2050 and encompass an area larger than Montana. By 2050, more than half of some states (e.g., Rhode Island, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut) is projected to be urban land.
同时，等于宾夕法尼亚州规模的美国森林土地将在2000年至2050年之间被推销到城市土地上。如果这些预测持续下去，则可能会要求专业工程师改善城市核心中的老化和过度的基础设施，并扩大范围基础设施可容纳庞大的郊区。
Aging Population
在美国，人口正在增长，这给工程师带来了挑战。例如，工作年龄人数的减少意味着较少的合格工人供应，使企业难以填补需求的工作。无法填补这些需求职业的经济面临有害后果，包括生产率下降，较高的人工成本，较慢的业务扩张和降低国际竞争力。
Other concerns include the rise in healthcare costs and the growing need for healthcare that increases with age. Countries with rapidly aging populations must devote more money and resources to healthcare. And with healthcare spending as a share of gross domestic product already high in most advanced economies, it is difficult to increase spending and ensure care improves.
Countries with large elderly populations must also rely on smaller pools of workers to pay taxes for higher health costs, pension benefits and other publicly funded programs. This is becoming common in advanced economies in which retirees live on fixed incomes that place them in lower tax brackets than active workers. The combination of lower tax revenues and higher spending commitments is a major concern for advanced industrialized nations.
2020: Pandemic and Social Upheaval
显然，尽管大流行不一定会引起变化，但它肯定会加速它。例如，尽管在国际边界上工作比以前几十年变得更加普遍，而国民经济则更相互依存，但大流行的“在家中的工作”或“从任何地方的工作”运动更加缩小了世界。曾经在少数州经营的企业让员工居住在美国各地，这具有业务影响。此外，如果按时完成工作并满足高质量的期望，客户似乎不再对与供应商“接近”的价值不再有价值。尚不清楚这种态度的改变是否会持续存在，但是逆转前的时代是极不可能的。
While not associated with the pandemic, 2020 also brought an increased focus on social and racial injustice in the U.S. It is now a business imperative for all companies and organizations to focus efforts on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Potential employees will decide to join a company base not only on compensation and benefits, but also on the firm’s culture and DEI efforts.
Workforce Pipeline
老龄化人口提出了与劳动力管道有关的工程挑战和机遇。在美国，每天有10,000个婴儿潮一代65岁，在未来三十年中，65岁及以上的人口将几乎翻一番。在接下来的15年中，近19,000名工程师，许多仍在工作的工程师，每年将满69岁。
Many companies and organizations have been preparing for this situation. However, have they prepared well enough? Have they thought of all the ramifications and taken action to address the issues? We are at risk of losing critical history and knowledge. No matter the organization, everyone is feeling the effects of the aging engineering population and the knowledge gap.
关注工作场所多样性似乎是一个逻辑step in solving the workforce pipeline challenges. Filling the void created by retiring Baby Boomers will require a more diverse pipeline and retaining women and minorities in the profession. For years, the number of female graduates has increased to as much as 50% in fields such as environmental engineering. Challenges persist, however, in retaining these women in engineering as their careers develop. Engineering leaders need to address the issue of inclusion within engineering to keep up with future demands.
Emerging Fields
There is no doubt industry will develop and implement new and better technologies, often at breakneck speeds. Although new technologies are not inherently bad, they should be developed so that they protect public health, safety, and welfare. Professional engineers must play significant roles in developing new products and services, rehabilitating the infrastructure and managing vital subsystems.
As technology advances, there should be caution regarding complex software that shifts routine engineering tasks from engineers onto technicians or even end-users. When products are designed and built with minimal human involvement—perhaps without even a professional engineer—the public can be put at risk. Although it’s easy to discount the role of humans as technology does more “thinking and creating,” engineers must embrace this change while continuing to protect the public.
Climate Change
Engineers will also play key roles in addressing climate change by reducing the contributing effects or mitigating the repercussions of climate changes on the infrastructure and natural resources. The NSPE’s "2020 Engineering Outlook & Salary Survey" shows that respondents younger than 25 believe engineers must actively engage on this issue. They are eager to solve climate challenges.
此外，工程师将需要创新并创建新的模型，产品和服务，以减少气候影响。他们将需要修改标准并开发保护人员和资源的设计过程。也许最重要的是，工程师将需要在桌面上坐在桌子旁，以提供有关避免和降低风险的专家建议。
工程许可
As discussed, the world is changing, which brings challenges and opportunities. Changes are happening in education, regulation, public opinion and technology, all of which affect PE licensing. As the future unfolds, it is important to remember that engineers are stewards of technology, the natural and built environments, and public health, safety, and welfare. PE licensing, however, was not created to readily support the vital role of engineers in these times.
Professional engineering licensing started during the second industrial revolution, with the first state license issued in Wyoming in 1907. NSPE was formed in 1935 with the goal of spreading licensing across the U.S., a goal achieved during the third industrial revolution.
Now the world is in the fourth Industrial Revolution; has PE licensing kept up to date? For example, consider software engineering. While the number of (and the need for) software engineers grow, the number of candidates seeking PE examination in that field dropped so low the exam was recently eliminated. This prevents software engineers from obtaining a PE license. With technological advances transforming how engineers work and interact, engineering licensure must be transformed.
Although governments have traditionally shaped the societal effects of new technologies, they struggle to keep up with the rapid change, making engineers’ professional judgment even more important.
大多数工程师负责影响公共卫生，安全和福利的活动，但是对PE许可法律有豁免，使某些个人和组织在许可系统之外执行工程服务。免税个人和组织不受与拥有PE许可证的人相同的法律和道德要求。这些豁免破坏了工程许可的目的和风险，使公众处于从个人那里获得服务的危险，而没有资格制定工程决策，这些决策可以充分保护公共卫生，安全和福利。
对于工程专业而言，进入2020年代及以后会带来激动人心的机会和艰巨的挑战。但是历史上充斥着这些例子，工程师们升起了巨大的挑战并抓住了新的机会。我相信专业工程师今天可以完成任务。
特里西亚·哈特利（P.E.）是National Society of Professional Engineers.
Read more from the职业发展年代eries:Engineering Your Career
